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关于特朗普是独裁者的怀疑大错特错。特朗普甚至从来没弄清楚他手下的人到底做什么工作,或者他可以信任哪些人。

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全文共1042个词,by

The is a at the of Books and of ‘The Age of ’

本文作者是《克莱蒙特书评》( of Books)特约编辑、《The Age of 》的作者

are with their . When they vote out a after one term, it is at the tail-end of a long in the White House for his party. Trump’s marks only the time since the 19th that have voted to send a party after a four-year term. (The other was Jimmy ’s in the late 1970s.) Among the : Mr Trump’s as a .

美国人对他们的政党很有耐心。当他们投票让只干了一届的总统出局时,通常是在此人所属政党长期执掌白宫的尾声。唐纳德•特朗普( Trump)的败选,标志着19世纪以来美国人第二次在单单一个四年任期之后投票让某个政党下台。(另一次是上世纪70年代末吉米•卡特的民主党。)原因之一是:特朗普作为管理者的史无前例的失败。

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face a Catch-22. They take power that a class or even a “deep state”, from the will of the , has grown , and self-. are right about the of . since Max Weber have that. But even an anti- , once in power, needs to run the and the it has been about.

民粹主义运动面临着一个矛盾。他们辩称,统治阶级或者“深层政府”(deep state)隔绝于人民的民主意志用人不察,已变得势利、不透明和自私自利。他们就是凭借着这种主张上台的。关于技术官僚的腐败,民粹主义者的看法有时是对的。自马克斯•韦伯(Max )以来的政治理论家就明白这一点。但即使是反技术官僚运动,一旦掌权,就需要足够的技术官僚知识来使政府运转,以及找出他们一直抱怨的弊病。

a is hard for who comes from the usual of elite-, but not . , mogul and mayor Recep all the to head of than Mr Trump.

组建一个民主政府的班底,对于来自通常由精英组成的系统之外的人而言是困难的,但并非不可能。美国将军德怀特•艾森豪威尔( )、意大利大亨西尔维奥•贝卢斯科尼( )和伊斯坦布尔市长雷杰普•塔伊普•埃尔多安(Recep )都比特朗普更成功地转型成为政府首脑。

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his -TV show The on Mr Trump as a of staff, and was never his . One to name a of who from any of the he has run over the past half-: , , an , an team. That in the White House.

尽管特朗普的真人秀节目《学徒》(The )将他的形象打造为选拔人才者,但招聘和解雇从来都不是他的强项。人们很难在他半个世纪内运营的任何业务——酒店,赌场,航空公司,橄榄球队——当中挑出哪怕一名杰出的高管。这一情况延续到了白宫。

A 4,000 “ ”, who form a , and, above all, loyal core. For , -elect Joe Biden named his White House chief of staff: Ron Klain, who as his vice- chief of staff. chief of staff to Al Gore, Mr Klain in the in the over the 2000 . Mr Biden has to reach out to his , but that work will be done by other than Mr Klain.

美国总统掌握着4000个“政治任命”,应该能建立起一个合格、有效率而且——最重要的是——忠诚的核心团队。例如,当选总统乔•拜登(Joe Biden)最近任命了他的白宫幕僚长:罗恩•克莱因(Ron Klain),此人曾在拜登任副总统时担任他的幕僚长。在更早之前,克莱因还担任过阿尔•戈尔(Al Gore)的幕僚长,并在围绕2000年大选结果的激烈党派斗争中战斗过。拜登承诺会与他的政治对手接触,但这项工作很可能是克莱因以外的人负责。

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Mr Trump made one bad after . He chose as his first chief of staff an ally of the party he . had a for to ’ lead: more gay , more .

特朗普做了一连串的糟糕决策。他选择的首任幕僚长是他推翻的政党领袖的盟友。雷恩斯•普里巴斯( )曾写过一份政策宣言,呼吁共和党人追随民主党人的理念:更多同性恋权利,更多移民服务。

The also his son-in-law Jared as a “ ”; an ill- post that the life-long to much of the . Mr Trump named an -, Jeff , whom he for to him from . Oil Rex , Mr Trump’s first of state, had of the state as he had Exxon. That made it to staff the : who wants a that might not exist in a few ?

总统还任命自己的女婿贾里德•库什纳(Jared )为“高级顾问”;这个职位缺乏清晰的说明,使这个一辈子都是民主党员的人得以凌驾于内阁中的大部分人。特朗普任命杰夫•塞申斯(Jeff )为司法部长,他后来指责此人未能帮他避免遭受出于政治目的的调查。石油公司高管雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex )是特朗普的首任国务卿,他曾梦想着像他在埃克森(Exxon)做的那样重组国务院。这使得外交人事安排更为困难:谁想要一个可能数月之后就不复存在的职位?

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Delay was a big part of the Trump ’s . Of those 4,000 , 2,800 do not , and can be . But this too hard. There was a of loyal to Mr Trump. As is , many of Obama’s had . And, both the and the of US civil the 2016 , Mr Trump to them to be both and when he came for their . He the swamp to in its own .

任命延迟是特朗普政府的一个大问题。在4000个政治任命中,有2800个不需要参议院的批准,岗位可以即时填补。但这也被证明很困难。具备任职资格且忠于特朗普的专业人士很缺乏。按照惯例,许多获巴拉克•奥巴马( Obama)政治任命的官员已成为不可解雇的职业雇员。而且,特朗普在2016年竞选活动中侮辱了美国公务员的能力和正直,可当他争取对他们的授权时,似乎又期望他们能有职业素养且中立。他期望“沼泽”配合“抽干”他们自己的任务(特朗普曾提出“抽干沼泽”的口号——译者注)。

It did not. Mr Trump was last , not . The -led probe built on a of that his . It is wrong to use the term “deep state” to those in the who in this . They wore their on their .

他们并没有配合。去年12月用人不察,特朗普受到弹劾,不过没有被定罪。这场民主党主导的调查基于一系列阻碍特朗普总统任期的调查行动。用“深层政府”来形容情报机构中那些加入这场最后一搏的人是错误的。他们脸上写满了抗拒。

Seen in this light, the that Mr Trump was a was off-base. An is not just a ruler. An makes the ’s of force — , , spies — to his will. Mr Trump never even what his did or which ones he could trust. There were many to worry about Mr Trump. was not one of them.

由此看来,关于特朗普正逐渐成为独裁者的怀疑一直大错特错。独裁者不仅是唯我独尊的统治者。独裁者还能让政府的权力工具——警察、士兵、间谍——与他的意志产生共鸣。特朗普甚至从来没弄清楚他手下的人到底做什么工作,或者他可以信任哪些人。人们有很多理由对特朗普感到担忧。独裁不是其中之一。

The Mr Trump’s and UK prime Boris ’s (at least on ) is that Mr found staff and Mr Trump did not. the of 2016, and Mr in 10 in 2019 to help from a and . The of Mr is less to make Mr ’s more “” than to make it more , and not in the best sense.

特朗普的失败和英国首相鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris )的成功(至少在推动退欧上成功了)之间的差别在于,约翰逊发掘了足够的高级官员,而特朗普没有。多米尼克•卡明斯( )成功设计了2016年的退欧运动,并在2019年加入约翰逊的唐宁街10号(10 )团队,以帮助将退欧从法律和程序困境中拯救出来。卡明斯辞职使约翰逊政府变得更“温和”的可能性,小于使其变得更有特朗普色彩的可能性,这不是什么好情况。

For a , it’s hard to find good help these days. But it vital. The is not just , it is . An turns out to be a rare type: who loves to its , but hates it to join in it apart.

对于民粹主义者而言,在当下很难找到好帮手。但这一点仍然至关重要。问题不仅在于体制,而且在于性格。有用的民粹主义顾问其实属于少见的性格类型:这个人要足够热爱官僚体制,才能掌握其具体情况;但又足够憎恨官僚体制,才会加入分裂它的行动。

本文11月24日发布于FT中文网,英文原题为 Trump’s big flaw:

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